Expert Advice

Another lesson from playing fantasy football (well, more of a question really); why do we rely so much on the opinions of experts? Especially in things like fantasy sports, the stock market, job hunting, and other realms. Fantasy sports I kind of understand, I don't have the time (or inclination really) to delve into the details of every player's stats, trends, and match-ups. It's easier to see what other people think and use that analysis to guide my decision. But at the end of the day, it's all a guess anyway. We can make all kinds of arguments for what might happen, but ultimately we're using past performance to predict future performance. That's always a dicey proposition. My guess about what might happen in a game is just as good as some guy on TV. We're just making a guess about the future. He may have more information, but that doesn't make it any better. The same thing can be said about the stock market. Information galore does not guarantee a better prediction. The application of rationality to an irrational situation still results in an irrational outcome.The more irrational the situation, the more we seem to rely on "experts" to lead the way. Why?

I already did algebra in high school

I've spent a good chunk of my study time this week working algebra problems for my finance class. I kind of like doing them, they're fun little puzzles, but do I really need to spend all of this time working problems where I use one ratio to figure out a term in another? It feels kind of like busy work to me. We'll see what the test is like. It looks like Saturday nights are going to be my test taking nights. What a fun way to spend the weekend! It's part of this process though. I have to use all of the time at my disposal. Every hour counts.

I finished The Black Swan today. That brings me up to 21 books. I realized that if I can get to 26 I will have averaged a book every 2 weeks. That's not too shabby, especially given that I'm doing this whole online school thing. The next book in the Wheel of Time series comes out soon. That will be 22 this year. I just need to find 4 books to read over the next 3 months. I should really try to find something that I can use for my management class. That would be killing 2 birds with one stone.