14 weeks

14 weeks is 98 days. We're creeping up on 100 days of trying to keep COVID 19 under control. I find it strangely satisfying that the 100 day mark brings a bit of predictability to this situation. I've spent the last 14 weeks trying to guess what kind of decisions the various layers of government are going to make, when businesses are going to open, and when we might get back to some sense of normalcy (I refuse to accept this notion of the new normal). I've been frustrated when logic and reason were subsumed by what I thought was fear but soon realized was politics. I've watched the Virus Eradication religion grow and evangelize the sacrament of the mask. We're finished with rapidly evolving response to the virus. We've basically ended up where I thought we should be right from the beginning of this thing. We're going to try to live with it. 

Most businesses are open. Entertainment and diversions are still largely not happening. I've eaten in a restaurant again. I've been back to the gym (although it's much harder to get there when I'm working at home). We're using online grocery shopping more to avoid wearing a mask while shopping. There is still no baseball. Disney is planning on opening, but the magic will not be coming back when the gates reopen. I don't expect much to change for the rest of the year. People bemoan the spike in cases, but the numbers are still extremely small in context of the population. The numbers aren't telling, at least not yet. We're about to get into the really interesting part of this whole social experiment. 

The media analysis of case counts starts and ends with the number. The bigger the number, the more dramatic the headline. All kinds of guesses and opinions from people who have credentials that make them an acceptable expert usually follow the dramatic headline. The state was opened too soon. There isn't enough testing. The hospitals are going to get overrun soon. The worst is yet to come. When do they really dig into the numbers? The details of the cases that make up that big number matter far more than the number itself. Bad outcomes are not randomly distributed over the people who get infected. Unhealthy people suffer while the stronger survive. What will be the outcome of these spikes in cases? Hospitalizations are creeping up. Does that mean a wave of deaths is coming? We'll see soon. 

A wave of deaths or a flood of recoveries won't change how governments are going to respond to the virus. Lockdowns are no longer a viable option. This is why things will be stable. We are getting a sustainable level of economic activity amidst just enough preventative measures that the people in charge can claim to be doing something. The opening of Disney World illustrates this effort to balance making money with appearing to be doing something about the virus. Masks, distancing, reduced capacity, lots and lots of cleaning is being used to show just how much Disney cares about guests and cast members. Attendance is going to be terrible. People aren't going to be happy. That's not what matters. They can generate some revenue and point to all the ways they care (even if those efforts are not exactly effective at mitigating the spread of the virus). We'll continue inching through this terrible state until a treatment or vaccine gives them (and everybody else) cover to finally open and run the business in a way that will actually earn a profit. 

Nobody is happy with this arrangement. The deadly virus crowd feels like we aren't doing enough to stop the virus while the what's the big deal crowd complains that all these measures are just for show and don't need to be applied so widely. I would love to be fine with the masks so i could go about my life with a mild inconvenience on my face, but I just can't get on board with the mask. They are unnecessary. It's ironic that I'm going out less now that things are more open. I was fine going about my business, but now that I have to wear a mask to go into stores I would rather just stay home. I've accepted that things are going to be wonky for awhile. I don't like it, but I'm relieved to see that we're finally starting to let the virus run its course so we can just get on with our life.